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Center Accomplishment Highlights: Research
Advanced Technology Used to Monitor Forest Change
Many forest changes that are visible to the eye are lost in the background as one moves further away. At the same time, a seemingly isolated or random change can be seen as part of a broader pattern only when viewed from afar. Detail and perspective are both important to gain the full picture. Finding a proper balance between the resolution needed to extract detail and the field of vision required to gain perspective is a constant challenge facing those trying to monitor forest conditions over broad areas. To address this challenge, EFETAC has teamed up with scientists from NASA’s Stennis Space Center, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and other Forest Service technology centers to develop an early warning system that uses multiple sensors operating at multiple scales.
The development of the early warning system is in its early stages, but preliminary results are promising. Much of the system utilizes existing technology and algorithms developed for other purposes. Because the final system will monitor all lands, not just forests, the information generated should prove useful to numerous Federal, state, and local authorities with land management responsibilities.
Contact: William H. Hargrove, (828) 257-4127, whargrove@fs.fed.us
Comprehensive Tools Assess Stress on Southeastern Water Supply
Water resources are critical to the sustainable development of the water-rich southeastern U.S. However, comprehensive tools to conduct the assessment of long-term impacts of changes in climate, population, and land use at the regional scale are lacking. EFETAC researchers are studying methods to fully budget annual water availability for water supply and demand from commercial, domestic, industrial, irrigation, livestock, mining, and thermoelectric uses. The Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) was developed to evaluate water stress conditions over time and across the 666 8-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) watersheds in the 13 southeastern states. Predictions from two Global Circulation Models (CGC1 and HadCM2Sul), one land use change model, and one human population change model were integrated to project future water supply stress in 2020.
The integrated modeling tool will be useful for water resources managers developing long-term water supply plans and policymakers considering appropriate actions to manage multiple stresses from climate change, population growth, and economic development across the southeastern U.S.
Contact: Ge Sun, research hydrologist, (919) 515-9498, gesun@fs.fed.us
Can Tree Species Standup to Climate Change?
Climate change poses a severe threat to the viability of several forest tree species, which will be forced either to adapt to new conditions or to shift their ranges to more favorable environments. Species with limited ranges may be particularly at risk, as may those currently threatened by exotic insects and diseases. EFETAC researchers will use spatial models of future environmental conditions to predict the location and quality of habitat for forest tree species under different climate change scenarios. They also will determine where each species, within its current range, is most susceptible to extinction as a result of climate change, by measuring the distance to the nearest favorable future habitat. Researchers will then work with Forest Service forest geneticists to assess the risk of extinction for each species based on the results of the spatial analysis and on existing knowledge about the biology and genetic diversity of the species.
The results of this work will be valuable for scientists and policymakers attempting to determine which forest tree species and populations should be targeted for conservation efforts in the face of climate change. The results will also be useful for land-use planners and conservation organizations interested in identifying geographic locations that could be preserved as important future habitat for at-risk tree species.
Contact: Bill Bechtold, Forest Health Monitoring team leader, (828) 257-4357, wabechtold@fs.fed.us
U.S. Invasive Plants Identified in Comprehensive Database
Over 4,000 plants have been introduced in the U.S. through accidental and intentional releases. Developing a method to identify potentially invasive species from this pool of introduced plants will enable the prediction and prevention of future invasions; however, while some invasive plant species share certain biological traits, no one trait can be used as a convenient predictor of invasiveness. In order to examine parameters of plant invasion success in the United States, EFETAC scientists are developing a database that compiles several key life history and genetic traits for all currently known introduced plant species, including morphological traits, pollination and dispersal mechanisms, chromosome number, habitat preferences, and geographical distribution.
These data will allow for continental scale analyses of biological traits that influence species invasiveness and distribution and will aid in developing early warning systems, predictive models, risk assessments, and management plans for invasive plant species. The database will be made available on the Internet for the public, land managers, scientists, and policymakers to use as a comprehensive resource of introduced plants in the U.S.
Contact: Qinfeng Guo, research ecologist, (828) 257-4246, qguo@fs.fed.us
Science Benefits Interagency Fire Planning Effort
Each year, the Federal government spends more than $2 billion on wildland fire prevention, preparedness, suppression, and recovery. These funds are distributed among five Federal agencies—Forest Service, National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Indian Affairs, and Bureau of Land Management. The multi-agency Fire Program Analysis (FPA) is a special effort created to respond to wildland firefighting funding concerns and to develop common interagency decision support tools for wildland fire planning and budgeting. This effort enables federal wildland fire managers to jointly plan for funding allocations that cost-effectively accomplish interagency objectives. FPA also encourages state and local wildland fire partners to participate.
Center Director Danny C. Lee is co-leader of the Interagency Science Team (IST), commissioned to provide FPA with scientific support. The original IST—which included 13 scientists from the Forest Service, the U.S. Geological Survey, and academia—designed an analytical system to meet FPA needs. More information can be found at http://www.fpa.nifc.gov.
Also related to FPA, EFETAC ecologist Steve Norman is interacting with fire managers across the eastern US to assess the value of FPA products. Norman has identified three reasons why fire behavior models may perform poorly in the east relative to the west: (1) fuels maps are highly inaccurate; (2) the fire season largely occurs before leaf out and there is no relevant canopy cover layer; (3) many fires in the east are regulated by the water table or shrub-herb leaf out, and existing fuel models lack the capability to switch fuel types based on phenology and climate variation. Future work will address these deficiencies and improve the reliability of the modeling tools.
Contact: Danny C. Lee, EFETAC Director, (828) 257-4854, dclee@fs.fed.us or Steve Norman, ecologist, (828) 259-0535, stevenorman@fs.fed.us
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