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Research Abstracts
Advanced technology supports integrated threat assessment tools
PARTNERS: University of North Carolina Asheville's National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC)
SUMMARY: The EFETAC-NEMAC Collaborative was formed to meet the technology requirements of the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center (EFETAC). The mission of EFETAC is to generate, integrate, and assess environmental threats to public and private forests of the eastern US, and to deliver this knowledge to managers in ways that are timely, useful and user friendly. The collaboration between EFETAC and NEMAC supports the mission of the center with the development of advanced tools and technologies that support integrated threat assessments for a variety of audiences. Personnel from the Forest Service and NEMAC will work together to develop the database systems and software applications needed to achieve the short-term goals and implement the long-term vision of the center.
Activities of this collaboration include, but are not limited to the improvement of data collection, management and analysis for integrated threat assessment; the enhancement of end-user capabilities and expertise for comparative risk and assessment; and the coordination of EFETAC-collaborator programmatic activities.
The primary benefit of this collaboration and the resulting deliverables relate to (a) understanding the problems involved in data collection, management and analysis of data for integrated threat assessment, (b) creating tools for assessment that meet the high-speed access and sharing needs of the environmental threat community and helping to further understand the problem, and (c) developing selected tools for deployment within the Forest Service (FS) and for decision makers, land owners, extension agents, and others.
CONTACT: Jim Fox, Director of Operations, jfox@unca.edu or (828) 301-2075; Karin Lichtenstein, Project Manager, klichten@unca.edu or (828) 250-3892; Todd Pierce, Research Scientist, tpierce@unca.edu or (828) 250-3879; Bridget O’Hara, Communications Specialist, bohara@unca.edu or (828) 250-3882
Assessing southern pine beetle effects on viewsheds of South Carolina using modeling, GIS, and 3D visualization
PARTNERS: Belle W. Baruch Institute of Coastal Ecology and Forest Science at Clemson University
SUMMARY: There are many models for estimating stand susceptibility to Southern Pine Beetle (SPB) infestation, including both the probability of infestation and spot growth. These models can predict sufficiently well to enable management on a least cost basis. However, all present models are limited to regression or mechanistic models which predict the number of trees killed in a forest stand. A program has been developed to simulate SPB spot growth in a GIS-based model, using a regression model of SPB spot growth, and using ArcGIS. Spot spread for natural loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) stands was mapped with different SPB management alternatives. Moreover, GIS maps of possible infestations were used as the basis of 3-dimensional visualizations to provide stereo viewshed and full motion animations of selected scenarios, using the Visual Nature Studio (VNS) software package.
The simulation results showed that under various silvicultural treatments of SPB management, including thinning, different species mixtures, and different ages of stands, there are differences between the before and after treatments. Although silvicultural treatments can reduce the number of trees killed, this does not necessarily result in a reduction of the infested area in the stand. In the future, the spot initiation and growth data will be combined with ArcGIS™ and VNS™ to develop an integrated program to visualize SPB damage under various sites and stand conditions.
CONTACT: Bo Song, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Belle W. Baruch Institute of Coastal Ecology and Forest Science, bosong@clemson.edu or (843) 545-5673
Assessment of disturbance impacts on U.S. forest carbon sequestration
SUMMARY: Disturbance impacts are important to consider when estimating the amount of carbon sequestered by U.S. forests. There has been little research in this area; therefore, the objective in this study is to estimate potential changes in forest carbon sequestration due to two major disturbance impacts: hurricanes and insects. This should result in more accurate estimations of U.S. forest carbon sequestration in the future. An extensive literature search will be conducted for estimates of the amount of direct damage (tree mortality) and indirect damage (e.g., subsequent fire, defoliation) caused by hurricanes and insects, by volume and year. These values will be used to estimate how much carbon is transferred from live to dead carbon pools during a disturbance event. Researchers will create an equation to estimate carbon biomass moved to the detritus pool, taking into account carbon fraction as a total proportion of total tree biomass, specific gravity of certain tree species, and stem wood ratios for non-commercial components of trees. The published damage values will be incorporated into these equations and scaled to regional and national levels to find the total carbon loss due to hurricanes and insects. Results of this work will include estimates of carbon lost via hurricanes and insects, leading to more accurate estimates of carbon sequestration by U.S. forests. Equations created to estimate total forest carbon loss based on damage could be adapted in the future to project carbon loss due to any disturbance impact.
CONTACT: Steve McNulty, EFETAC Southern Global Change Program Team Leader, steve_mcnulty@ncsu.edu or 919-515-9489
Climate, population, and vegetation cover change impacts on water yield and demand across the conterminous U.S.
PARTNERS: USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station
SUMMARY: Water resources across the United States have been increasingly stressed over the past decades, mainly due to population growth and climate change and variability. The objective of this study is to develop a method to fully budget annual water supply (Precipitation - Evapotranspiration (ET) + Groundwater Supply + Return Flow) and water use from thermoelectric, irrigation, domestic, industry, livestock, mining, and commercial uses at the watershed scale. Researchers used a generalized annual ET model that estimates water loss as a function of potential ET, annual precipitation, land cover type, and topography. The Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI)--the ratio of water demand and supply--was developed to evaluate water stress conditions. Scientists then examined the impacts of future changes in climate, land use, and population individually or in combination on the WaSSI. Modeling results from two Global Circulation Models, one land use change model, and one population change model were integrated to project future water supply and use over the next 50 years. Preliminary study results have been presented and published in peer reviewed journals and international conference proceedings.
CONTACT: Ge Sun, EFETAC Southern Global Change Program Research Hydrologist, ge_sun@ncsu.edu or 919-515-9498
Community tree inventory – Pest detection and reporting
PARTNERS: USDA Forest Service Northeastern Area Forest Health Protection
SUMMARY: The Inventory Pest Detection (I-PED) Initiative aims to develop, disseminate, implement, and establish a state-of-the-art, long-term, national urban and community forest pest detection and reporting network linked to local urban forest inventory efforts. The I-PED tool is expected to become a vital component of the Forest Service’s i-Tree software suite of urban forest inventory and analysis tools that is being used in communities across the country.
A project planning and development team is working to move this effort forward. The team includes several USDA agencies, including Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, and the Forest Service's Northern Research Station, Northeastern Area State Forestry, and Washington Office Private Forestry Urban and Community Forestry and Forest Health Protection Programs. Other team members represent the Society of Municipal Arborists, Davey Tree, and the University of Georgia Bugwood Network. The Society of Municipal Arborists has taken the lead in supporting beta testing of the I-PED desktop and field program.
CONTACT: Daniel Twardus, Northeastern Area State and Private Forestry, dtwardus@fs.fed.us or (304) 285-1545
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