PARTNERS: USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station

SUMMARY: Water resources across the United States have been increasingly stressed over the past decades, mainly due to population growth and climate change and variability. The objective of this study is to develop a method to fully budget annual water supply (Precipitation - Evapotranspiration (ET) + Groundwater Supply + Return Flow) and water use from thermoelectric, irrigation, domestic, industry, livestock, mining, and commercial uses at the watershed scale. Researchers used a generalized annual ET model that estimates water loss as a function of potential ET, annual precipitation, land cover type, and topography. The Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI)--the ratio of water demand and supply--was developed to evaluate water stress conditions. Scientists then examined the impacts of future changes in climate, land use, and population individually or in combination on the WaSSI. Modeling results from two Global Circulation Models, one land use change model, and one population change model were integrated to project future water supply and use over the next 50 years. Preliminary study results have been presented and published in peer reviewed journals and international conference proceedings. 

STATUS: Ongoing

PROGRESS:

Sun, G., S.G. McNulty, J.A. Moore Myers, and E.C. Cohen. 2008. Impacts of Climate Change, Population Growth, Land Use Change, and Groundwater Availability on Water Supply and Demand across the Conterminous U.S. Watershed Update, May-August, Vol. 6, No. 2. 

Sun, G.,  S.G. McNulty, J.A. Moore Myers, and E.C. Cohen. 2008. Impacts of Multiple Stresses on Water Demand and Supply across the Southeastern United States. Journal of American Water Resources Association. In Press.

McNulty, S.G., G. Sun, E.C. Cohen, and J.A. Moore Myers. 2007. Change in the Southern U.S. Water Demand and Supply over the Next Forty Years. Book Chapter 5. In: Wetland and Water Resource Modeling and Assessment: a Watershed Perspective. W. Ji (ed). P 43-56. CRC Press. 

Sun, G., S.G. McNulty, E. Cohen, J. Moore-Myers, and D. Wear. 2005. Modeling the impacts of climate change, land use change, and human population dynamics on water availability and demands in the Southeastern U.S. ASAE Paper No. 052219. St. Joseph, Mich.: ASAE. 

Steve McNulty, Ge Sun, and Jennifer Moore Myers. 2004. Climate, Population, and Vegetation Cover Change Impacts on Water Yield and Demand Across the Southern US. In: Geographic Information Systems and Water Resources III: AWRA Spring Specialty Conference. Nashville, TN. May 17-19, 2004.

LINKS: USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station

CONTACT: Ge Sun, EFETAC Southern Global Change Program Research Hydrologist, ge_sun@ncsu.edu or 919-515-9498