PARTNERS: North Carolina State University (NCSU) Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, Research Triangle Institute (RTI)

SUMMARY: The photosynthesis evapotranspiration (PnET) model forest ecosystem process is being modified to include species dynamics, mortality, and regeneration functionality and feedback. This will allow for individual tree species growth to be computed and tracked and for inter-specific competition to occur over time in response to the combined ecological and economic effects of environmental changes. Mortality inherently results from this species competition, and mortality rates representative of insect, disease, and extreme weather events for hardwoods and softwoods were derived from historic FIA data and applied annually.  

SRTS, the sub-regional timber supply economic model, will incorporate dynamically modeled growth estimates from PnET. The coupling of these two models, combined with a central area, volume, mortality, and vintage accounting database, form the PnET economic modeling system (PEcon). The system is initialized with forest timber volume for the region from county-level FIA variable summaries for approximately 40,000 privately-owned plots in the 11 state area (TX and OK were excluded due to lack of economic data). Results of the PEcon modeling system simulations will be compared with FIA volume estimates to gauge the accuracy of model performance and interactions.   

Results of the PEcon modeling system simulations were compared with FIA volume estimates to gauge the accuracy of model performance and interactions. Following estimates for multiple climate change and disturbance scenarios, work will focus on sensitivity analyses for input parameters and key model process indicators.

STATUS: Ongoing

PROGRESS:

Steve McNulty, Jennifer Moore, Louis Iverson, Anantha Prasad, Bob Abt, Bryan Smith, Ge Sun, Michael Gavazzi, John Bartlett, Brian Murray, Robert Mickler, and John Aber. 2000. Application of linked regional scale growth, biogeography, and economic models for southeastern United States pine forest. World Resource Review 12(2): 298-320.

LINKS:

NCSU Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources

Research Triangle Institute (RTI)

CONTACT: Steve McNulty, EFETAC Southern Global Change Program Team Leader, steve_mcnulty@ncsu.edu or 919-515-9489