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Predicting forest succession in the wake of invasive species establishment
PARTNERS: University of Kentucky Department of Entomology
SUMMARY: Forest health is declining due to a multitude of potentially invasive insects, pathogens, and plants. Research was proposed in April 2006 with the purpose of broadening the knowledge base on exotic species’ invasion, establishment, and ensuing interactions with endemic species by predicting forest ecosystem processes and structure following invasive species establishment. The objectives of this work are to utilize vegetation assessments and modeling of current forests in southeastern Kentucky to predict the outcome of establishment by selected non-native invasive species. This project seeks to (1) evaluate current vegetation and stand characteristics, and (2) predict the outcome of invasion and establishment of exotic bark/ambrosia beetles, the hemlock woolly adelgid, and sudden oak death on future forests of the region. This approach could be extrapolated to predict future forest structure and composition following establishment by additional non-native species.
STATUS: Ongoing
PROGRESS: To document current conditions, researchers are using standard Forest Service protocols to assess woody plant composition and structure and to characterize groundcover vegetation and fuels, including the presence and relative abundance of nonnative invasive plants. A graduate student is performing simulations of ground-censused data to model selected invasions, with potential for modeling additional pest impacts. A manuscript is in preparation.
LINKS:
University of Kentucky Department of Entomology
CONTACT: Lynne Rieske-Kinney, Forest Entomologist, University of Kentucky Department of Entomology, lrieske@uky.edu or (859) 257-1167
Updated September 2009
