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Predicting forest succession in the wake of invasive species establishment
PARTNERS: University of Kentucky Department of Entomology
SUMMARY: Forest health is declining due to a multitude of potentially invasive insects, pathogens, and plants. Research was proposed in April 2006 with the purpose of broadening the knowledge base on exotic species’ invasion, establishment, and ensuing interactions with endemic species by predicting forest ecosystem processes and structure following invasive species establishment. The objectives of this work are to utilize vegetation assessments and modeling of current forests in southeastern Kentucky to predict the outcome of establishment by selected non-native invasive species. This project seeks to (1) evaluate current vegetation and stand characteristics, and (2) predict the outcome of invasion and establishment of exotic bark/ambrosia beetles, the hemlock woolly adelgid, and sudden oak death on future forests of the region. This approach could be extrapolated to predict future forest structure and composition following establishment by additional non-native species.
STATUS: Ongoing
PROGRESS: Plot establishment and initial censusing for vegetation and forest structure is complete. A graduate student has completed training for forest modeling. Simulations of ground-censused data are underway to model selected invasions (hemlock woolly adelgid, sudden oak death, exotic phloem feeders and wood borers), with potential for modeling additional pest impacts. This project is on target for completion in winter 2008 - spring 2009.
LINKS:
University of Kentucky Department of Entomology
CONTACT: Lynne Rieske-Kinney, Forest Entomologist, University of Kentucky Department of Entomology, lrieske@uky.edu or (859) 257-1167
